Peramalan Curah Hujan Kabupaten Padang Pariaman dengan Menggunakan Metode Fuzzy Time Series Singh

Authors

  • Riskiani Lubis Universitas negeri padang
  • Zamahsary Martha Universitas Negeri Padang
  • Syafriandi Universitas Negeri Padang
  • Admi Salma Universitas Negeri Padang

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.30656/gauss.v8i1.10465

Abstract

Abstrak

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk meramalkan curah hujan di Kabupaten Padang Pariaman, Provinsi Sumatera Barat, menggunakan metode Fuzzy Time Series Singh. Penelitian ini dilatarbelakangi oleh fluktuasi curah hujan yang tinggi di wilayah tersebut, yang menyebabkan bencana seperti banjir dan tanah longsor, yang merugikan sektor pertanian, infrastruktur, kesehatan, dan perekonomian masyarakat. Data yang digunakan adalah data curah hujan bulanan dari Januari 2020 hingga Desember 2024. Metode Fuzzy Time Series Singh dipilih karena sederhana namun efektif dalam meramalkan data runtun waktu berbasis logika fuzzy. Tahapan dalam metode ini meliputi pembentukan himpunan semesta, penentuan interval, fuzzifikasi data, pembentukan hubungan logika fuzzy, dan defuzzifikasi. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian diperoleh bahwa metode ini mampu menghasilkan estimasi curah hujan yang mendekati nilai aktual, dengan MAPE 7,67%. Hasil penelitian dapat digunakan sebagai alat bantu dalam perencanaan mitigasi bencana seperti tanah longsor dan banjir.

Kata kunci: Curah Hujan, Peramalan, Fuzzy Time Series Singh

Abstract

This study aims to forecast rainfall in Padang Pariaman Regency, West Sumatra Province, using the Fuzzy Time Series Singh method. The research is motivated by the high fluctuation of rainfall in the area, which often leads to disasters such as floods and landslides, adversely affecting the agricultural sector, infrastructure, public health, and the local economy. The data used in this study consists of monthly rainfall records from January 2020 to December 2024. The Fuzzy Time Series Singh method was chosen due to its simplicity and effectiveness in forecasting time series data based on fuzzy logic. The stages of this method include the formation of the universe of discourse, interval determination, data fuzzification, formation of fuzzy logical relationships, and defuzzification. The results of the study show that this method is capable of producing rainfall estimates that closely match the actual values, with a MAPE of 7.67%. The findings can be used as a supporting tool for disaster mitigation planning, particularly for landslides and floods.

Keywords: Rainfall, Forecasting, Fuzzy Time Series Singh

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Published

2025-06-05

Issue

Vol. 8 No. 1 (2025)

Section

Articles

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Copyright (c) 2025 Riskiani Lubis, Zamahsary Martha, Syafriandi, Admi Salma

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