Qualitative Risk Analysis to Determine the Probability and Impact of Risk Using the Delphi Technique

Abstract

Risk management plays a crucial role in decision-making across various sectors, with qualitative risk analysis serving as an effective method to identify, evaluate, and mitigate risks in complex and uncertain environments. The Delphi technique, which facilitates structured communication among experts through an iterative process with anonymous inputs, enables the achievement of consensus on key risk factors, including their probability and impact. This study explores the application of the Delphi technique using a multi-round questionnaire process to refine the opinions of carefully selected experts, resulting in mitigation strategies based on collective insights. This technique demonstrates its flexibility and adaptability in analyzing risks, complementing quantitative approaches with contextual qualitative assessments. The integration of semantic analysis further enriches this method by providing a deeper understanding of the relationships between risks, thereby contributing to the risk management literature by presenting a structured framework for implementing the Delphi technique in qualitative risk analysis.