Analisis Tipe Kompetisi, Dinamika Kestabilan Dan Peramalan Perolehan Laba Bersih Lembaga Keuangan Bank
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Abstract
Competition in the business world is something that cannot be avoided, for example competition in the banking sector. In this sector, competition has the potential to encourage the business world to be more competitive, and also improve the efficiency and health of banks. The aim of this research is to analyze the competition that occurs between bank BNI and Mandiri using the Lotka-Volterra competition model approach. The results of this research indicate that the type of competition between bank BNI and Mandiri is the predatory-prey, where BNI acts as a prey, while Mandiri acts as a predator. In addition, the results of future net income forecasting show that BNI's net income tends to decline over the next ten years, and after that it will be stable. On the other hand, Mandiri's net income will increase over the next three years, with maximum net income obtained in 2025, and after that it will be stable. Therefore, both of them must adopt a policy to overcome net income which is likely to experience stagnation in the future.
Keywords: bank, competition, Lotka-Volterra, net income, predatory, stable
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References
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Beck, T., De Jonghe, O., & Schepens, G. (2013). Bank competition and stability: Cross-country heterogeneity. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 22(2), 218–244. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfi.2012.07.001.
Berger, A. N., Molyneux, P., & Wilson, J. O. S. (2020). Banks and the real economy: An assessment of the research. Journal of Corporate Finance, 62, 101513. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2019.101513.
Bernanke, B., & Gertler, M. (1989). Agency costs, net worth, and business fluctuations. The American Economic Review, 79(1), 14–31.
Bernanke, B., & Gertler, M. (1995). Inside the black box: The credit channel of monetary policy transmission. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9(4), 27–48.
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Boyd, J. H., & De Nicoló, G. (2005). The theory of bank risk taking and competition revisited. Journal of Finance, 60(3), 1329–1343. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00763.x.
Braun, M., Briones, I., & Islas, G. (2019). Interlocking directorates, access to credit, and business performance in Chile during early industrialization. Journal of Business Research, 105, 381–388. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2017.12.052.
Chaibi, H., & Ftiti, Z. (2015). Credit risk determinants: Evidence from a cross-country study. Research in International Business and Finance, 33, 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2014.06.001.
Comes, C.-A. (2012). Banking system: Three level Lotka-Volterra Model. Procedia Economics and Finance, 3, 251–255. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(12)00148-7.
Coyte, K. Z., Schluter, J., & Foster, K. R. (2015). The ecology of the microbiome: Networks, competition, and stability. Science, 350(6261), 663–666. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aad2602.
Daly, J. L. (2002). Pricing for profitability: Activity-based pricing for competitive advantage. NY: John WIley & Sons, Inc.
Demir, E., & Danisman, G. O. (2021). Banking sector reactions to COVID-19: The role of bank-specific factors and government policy responses. Research in International Business and Finance, 58, 101508. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2021.101508.
Ekananda, M. (2019). The analysis of the effect of non-bank sector investment to the bank credit allocation. The Asia-Pacific Research in Social Sciences and Humanities Conference, 271–285.
Fatmawati, Khan, M. A., Azizah, M., Windarto, & Ullah, S. (2019). A fractional model for the dynamics of competition between commercial and rural banks in Indonesia. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 122, 32–46. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2019.02.009.
Fukuyama, H., Hashimoto, A., Matousek, R., & Tzeremes, N. G. (2021). Analyzing bank “black boxes”: A two-stage Nerlovian profit inefficiency model. Expert Systems with Applications, 183(February), 115405. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2021.115405.
Giesecke, K. (2004). Credit risk modeling and valuation: An introduction. Credit Risk: Models and Management, 2(1), 487–526. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.479323.
Goldstein, I., Koijen, R. S. J., & Mueller, H. M. (2021). COVID-19 and its impact on financial markets and the real economy. The Review of Financial Studies, 34(11), 5135–5148. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhab085.
Hassan, M. K., Karim, M. S., Lawrence, S., & Risfandy, T. (2022). Weathering the COVID-19 storm: The case of community banks. Research in International Business and Finance, 60, 101608. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2021.101608.
Hastings, A. (2013). Population biology: Concepts and models. New York: Springer Science & Business Media.
Hoberg, G., Phillips, G., & Prabhala, N. (2014). Product market threats, payouts, and financial flexibility. The Journal of Finance, 69(1), 293–324. https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12050.
Holmstrom, B., & Tirole, J. (1997). Financial intermediation, loanable funds, and the real sector. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112(3), 663–691. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355397555316.
Jamal, S. W., & Suparno, S. (2022). A solution management in handling economic inequality among agrarian communities. BHUMI: Jurnal Agraria Dan Pertanahan, 8(1), 68–83. https://doi.org/10.31292/bhumi.v8i1.528.
Kabir, M. N., & Worthington, A. C. (2017). The ‘competition–stability/fragility’ nexus: A comparative analysis of Islamic and conventional banks. International Review of Financial Analysis, 50, 111–128. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2017.02.006.
Keeley, M. C. (1990). Deposit insurance, risk, and market power in banking. American Economic Review, 80(5), 1183–1200.
Kim, J., Lee, D.-J., & Ahn, J. (2006). A dynamic competition analysis on the Korean mobile phone market using competitive diffusion model. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 51(1), 174–182. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cie.2006.07.009.
Kloppers, P. H., & Greeff, J. C. (2013). Lotka–Volterra model parameter estimation using experiential data. Applied Mathematics and Computation, 224, 817–825. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2013.08.093.
Lakka, S., Michalakelis, C., Varoutas, D., & Martakos, D. (2013). Competitive dynamics in the operating systems market: Modeling and policy implications. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 80(1), 88–105. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2012.06.011.
Lee, S.-J., Lee, D.-J., & Oh, H.-S. (2005). Technological forecasting at the Korean stock market: A dynamic competition analysis using Lotka–Volterra model. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 72(8), 1044–1057. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2002.11.001.
Lewis, C. D. (1982). Industrial and business forecasting methods: A practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fitting. London: Butterworth Scientific.
Mandiri. (2021). Laporan tahunan. https://bankmandiri.co.id/documents/38265486/0/Laporan+Tahunan+Mandiri+25+Juli+2022_compressed.pdf/73835289-33ab-5837-9031-fb3e4f28b991?t=1664251860488.
Mandiri. (2023). Laporan tahunan. Bank Mandiri. https://bankmandiri.co.id/web/ir/annual-reports.
Marasco, A., Picucci, A., & Romano, A. (2016). Market share dynamics using Lotka–Volterra models. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 105, 49–62. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.01.017.
May, R. M. (1973). Qualitative stability in model ecosystems. Ecology, 54(3), 638–641. https://doi.org/10.2307/1935352.
Michalakelis, C., Christodoulos, C., Varoutas, D., & Sphicopoulos, T. (2012). Dynamic estimation of markets exhibiting a prey–predator behavior. Expert Systems with Applications, 39(9), 7690–7700. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2012.01.049.
Mishkin, F. S. (2004). The economics of money, banking, and financial markets (Seventh Ed). London: Pearson Education.
Morris, S. A., & Pratt, D. (2003). Analysis of the Lotka–Volterra competition equations as a technological substitution model. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 70(2), 103–133. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1625(01)00185-8.
Mougi, A. (2016). The roles of amensalistic and commensalistic interactions in large ecological network stability. Scientific Reports, 6(1), 29929. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep29929.
Mougi, A., & Kondoh, M. (2012). Diversity of Interaction types and ecological community stability. Science, 337(6092), 349–351. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1220529.
OJK. (2017). Lembaga perbankan. Otoritas Jasa Keuangan. https://ojk.go.id/id/kanal/perbankan/ikhtisar-perbankan/Pages/Lembaga-Perbankan.aspx#:~:text=Fungsi utama perbankan Indonesia adalah,peningkatan taraf hidup rakyat banyak.
Padhan, R., & Prabheesh, K. P. (2021). The economics of COVID-19 pandemic: A survey. Economic Analysis and Policy, 70, 220–237. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2021.02.012.
Rivai, V., Veithzal, A. P., & Idroes, F. N. (2007). Bank and financial institution management conventional and sharia system. Jakarta: Raja Grafindo Persada.
Smith, R. C., & Walter, I. (2003). Global banking (2nd Ed.). Oxford University Press.
Wang, A. T. (2018). A reexamination on the effect of bank competition on bank non-performing loans. Applied Economics, 50(57), 6165–6173. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2018.1489505.
Wiggins, S. (2000). Introduction to applied nonlinear dynamical systems and chaios: Texts in applied mathematics (Second ed.). NY: Springer-Verlag.
Yusgiantoro, I., Soedarmono, W., & Tarazi, A. (2019). Bank consolidation and financial stability in Indonesia. International Economics, 159, 94–104. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2019.06.002.
Zaremba, A., Kizys, R., Aharon, D. Y., & Demir, E. (2020). Infected markets: Novel Coronavirus, government interventions, and stock return volatility around the globe. Finance Research Letters, 35, 101597. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101597.
Barbosa, K., de Paula Rocha, B., & Salazar, F. (2015). Assessing competition in the banking industry: A multi-product approach. Journal of Banking & Finance, 50, 340–362. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2014.05.003.
Barth, J. R., Caprio, G., & Levine, R. (2004). Bank regulation and supervision: what works best? Journal of Financial Intermediation, 13(2), 205–248. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfi.2003.06.002.
Beck, T., De Jonghe, O., & Schepens, G. (2013). Bank competition and stability: Cross-country heterogeneity. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 22(2), 218–244. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfi.2012.07.001.
Berger, A. N., Molyneux, P., & Wilson, J. O. S. (2020). Banks and the real economy: An assessment of the research. Journal of Corporate Finance, 62, 101513. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2019.101513.
Bernanke, B., & Gertler, M. (1989). Agency costs, net worth, and business fluctuations. The American Economic Review, 79(1), 14–31.
Bernanke, B., & Gertler, M. (1995). Inside the black box: The credit channel of monetary policy transmission. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9(4), 27–48.
Bikker, J. A., & Bos, J. W. B. (2008). Bank performance: A theoretical and empirical framework for the analysis of profitability, competition and efficiency. Routledge: Taylor & Francis Group.
BNI. (2021). Laporan tahunan. https://www.bni.co.id/Portals/1/BNI/Perusahaan/HubunganInvestor/Docs/AR-BNI-TB-2021-IND-v2.pdf.
BNI. (2023). Laporan dan presentasi. Bank Negara Indonesia. https://www.bni.co.id/id-id/perseroan/hubungan-investor/laporan-presentasi.
Boubaker, S., Buchanan, B., & Nguyen, D. K. (2016). Risk management in emerging markets: Issues, framework and modeling. Emerald Group Publishing.
Boyd, J. H., & De Nicoló, G. (2005). The theory of bank risk taking and competition revisited. Journal of Finance, 60(3), 1329–1343. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00763.x.
Braun, M., Briones, I., & Islas, G. (2019). Interlocking directorates, access to credit, and business performance in Chile during early industrialization. Journal of Business Research, 105, 381–388. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2017.12.052.
Chaibi, H., & Ftiti, Z. (2015). Credit risk determinants: Evidence from a cross-country study. Research in International Business and Finance, 33, 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2014.06.001.
Comes, C.-A. (2012). Banking system: Three level Lotka-Volterra Model. Procedia Economics and Finance, 3, 251–255. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(12)00148-7.
Coyte, K. Z., Schluter, J., & Foster, K. R. (2015). The ecology of the microbiome: Networks, competition, and stability. Science, 350(6261), 663–666. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aad2602.
Daly, J. L. (2002). Pricing for profitability: Activity-based pricing for competitive advantage. NY: John WIley & Sons, Inc.
Demir, E., & Danisman, G. O. (2021). Banking sector reactions to COVID-19: The role of bank-specific factors and government policy responses. Research in International Business and Finance, 58, 101508. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2021.101508.
Ekananda, M. (2019). The analysis of the effect of non-bank sector investment to the bank credit allocation. The Asia-Pacific Research in Social Sciences and Humanities Conference, 271–285.
Fatmawati, Khan, M. A., Azizah, M., Windarto, & Ullah, S. (2019). A fractional model for the dynamics of competition between commercial and rural banks in Indonesia. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 122, 32–46. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2019.02.009.
Fukuyama, H., Hashimoto, A., Matousek, R., & Tzeremes, N. G. (2021). Analyzing bank “black boxes”: A two-stage Nerlovian profit inefficiency model. Expert Systems with Applications, 183(February), 115405. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2021.115405.
Giesecke, K. (2004). Credit risk modeling and valuation: An introduction. Credit Risk: Models and Management, 2(1), 487–526. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.479323.
Goldstein, I., Koijen, R. S. J., & Mueller, H. M. (2021). COVID-19 and its impact on financial markets and the real economy. The Review of Financial Studies, 34(11), 5135–5148. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhab085.
Hassan, M. K., Karim, M. S., Lawrence, S., & Risfandy, T. (2022). Weathering the COVID-19 storm: The case of community banks. Research in International Business and Finance, 60, 101608. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2021.101608.
Hastings, A. (2013). Population biology: Concepts and models. New York: Springer Science & Business Media.
Hoberg, G., Phillips, G., & Prabhala, N. (2014). Product market threats, payouts, and financial flexibility. The Journal of Finance, 69(1), 293–324. https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12050.
Holmstrom, B., & Tirole, J. (1997). Financial intermediation, loanable funds, and the real sector. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112(3), 663–691. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355397555316.
Jamal, S. W., & Suparno, S. (2022). A solution management in handling economic inequality among agrarian communities. BHUMI: Jurnal Agraria Dan Pertanahan, 8(1), 68–83. https://doi.org/10.31292/bhumi.v8i1.528.
Kabir, M. N., & Worthington, A. C. (2017). The ‘competition–stability/fragility’ nexus: A comparative analysis of Islamic and conventional banks. International Review of Financial Analysis, 50, 111–128. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2017.02.006.
Keeley, M. C. (1990). Deposit insurance, risk, and market power in banking. American Economic Review, 80(5), 1183–1200.
Kim, J., Lee, D.-J., & Ahn, J. (2006). A dynamic competition analysis on the Korean mobile phone market using competitive diffusion model. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 51(1), 174–182. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cie.2006.07.009.
Kloppers, P. H., & Greeff, J. C. (2013). Lotka–Volterra model parameter estimation using experiential data. Applied Mathematics and Computation, 224, 817–825. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2013.08.093.
Lakka, S., Michalakelis, C., Varoutas, D., & Martakos, D. (2013). Competitive dynamics in the operating systems market: Modeling and policy implications. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 80(1), 88–105. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2012.06.011.
Lee, S.-J., Lee, D.-J., & Oh, H.-S. (2005). Technological forecasting at the Korean stock market: A dynamic competition analysis using Lotka–Volterra model. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 72(8), 1044–1057. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2002.11.001.
Lewis, C. D. (1982). Industrial and business forecasting methods: A practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fitting. London: Butterworth Scientific.
Mandiri. (2021). Laporan tahunan. https://bankmandiri.co.id/documents/38265486/0/Laporan+Tahunan+Mandiri+25+Juli+2022_compressed.pdf/73835289-33ab-5837-9031-fb3e4f28b991?t=1664251860488.
Mandiri. (2023). Laporan tahunan. Bank Mandiri. https://bankmandiri.co.id/web/ir/annual-reports.
Marasco, A., Picucci, A., & Romano, A. (2016). Market share dynamics using Lotka–Volterra models. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 105, 49–62. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.01.017.
May, R. M. (1973). Qualitative stability in model ecosystems. Ecology, 54(3), 638–641. https://doi.org/10.2307/1935352.
Michalakelis, C., Christodoulos, C., Varoutas, D., & Sphicopoulos, T. (2012). Dynamic estimation of markets exhibiting a prey–predator behavior. Expert Systems with Applications, 39(9), 7690–7700. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2012.01.049.
Mishkin, F. S. (2004). The economics of money, banking, and financial markets (Seventh Ed). London: Pearson Education.
Morris, S. A., & Pratt, D. (2003). Analysis of the Lotka–Volterra competition equations as a technological substitution model. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 70(2), 103–133. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1625(01)00185-8.
Mougi, A. (2016). The roles of amensalistic and commensalistic interactions in large ecological network stability. Scientific Reports, 6(1), 29929. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep29929.
Mougi, A., & Kondoh, M. (2012). Diversity of Interaction types and ecological community stability. Science, 337(6092), 349–351. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1220529.
OJK. (2017). Lembaga perbankan. Otoritas Jasa Keuangan. https://ojk.go.id/id/kanal/perbankan/ikhtisar-perbankan/Pages/Lembaga-Perbankan.aspx#:~:text=Fungsi utama perbankan Indonesia adalah,peningkatan taraf hidup rakyat banyak.
Padhan, R., & Prabheesh, K. P. (2021). The economics of COVID-19 pandemic: A survey. Economic Analysis and Policy, 70, 220–237. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2021.02.012.
Rivai, V., Veithzal, A. P., & Idroes, F. N. (2007). Bank and financial institution management conventional and sharia system. Jakarta: Raja Grafindo Persada.
Smith, R. C., & Walter, I. (2003). Global banking (2nd Ed.). Oxford University Press.
Wang, A. T. (2018). A reexamination on the effect of bank competition on bank non-performing loans. Applied Economics, 50(57), 6165–6173. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2018.1489505.
Wiggins, S. (2000). Introduction to applied nonlinear dynamical systems and chaios: Texts in applied mathematics (Second ed.). NY: Springer-Verlag.
Yusgiantoro, I., Soedarmono, W., & Tarazi, A. (2019). Bank consolidation and financial stability in Indonesia. International Economics, 159, 94–104. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2019.06.002.
Zaremba, A., Kizys, R., Aharon, D. Y., & Demir, E. (2020). Infected markets: Novel Coronavirus, government interventions, and stock return volatility around the globe. Finance Research Letters, 35, 101597. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101597.
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2024-07-18
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Copyright (c) 2024 Sri Wahyuni Jamal, Suparno Suparno, Fenty Fauziah, Marsha Anindita
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